1. médialab Sciences Po
  2. News
  3. When does hyper-personalization persuade? Evidence from nano-targeting of climate policy proposals

When does hyper-personalization persuade? Evidence from nano-targeting of climate policy proposals

This seminar session will welcome Thomas Robinson (London School of Economics). He will analyze the actual effectiveness of political nanotargeting.

Event, Research Seminar

⇥

Salle J.208, 13 rue de l'Université, 75007 Paris

Abstract

Standard theories of preference formation predict stronger effects from personalized messages, yet empirical evidence for micro-targeting remains limited, leaving unclear when hyper-personalization justifies its calibration and infrastructure costs. We report a pre-registered three-arm climate-petition experiment (n = 3113) testing nano-targeted petitions at the maximum granularity supported by a conjoint-based calibration design: 931 petitions drawn from 28,125 possible configurations. This is, to our knowledge, the most fine-grained test of message personalization to date. We also develop a four-part diagnostic framework, computable from calibration data alone, that explains why personalization often fails and allows campaigns and researchers to assess nano-targeting potential before deployment. In the climate-policy case, all diagnostics indicate limited predictable within-person heterogeneity in message preferences, explaining why an overall-best message dominates. Exploratory subgroup and dissuasion analyses suggest nano-targeting is more effective for base mobilization and dissuasion aims, helping explain its uptake by anti-system actors.

Biography

Thomas Robinson is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Methodology at the London School of Economics. He graduated from the University of Oxford with a PhD in Political Science in 2020. His research develops machine learning and deep learning methods to improve the conclusions we draw from experiments and surveys. He applies these methods to questions on voter behaviour, elections, and public health.​​

Practical information

This seminar will be held in person and in English, on Tuesday, June 9, 2026, from 10:00 AM to 11:30 AM, in room J.028, 13 rue de l'Université, 75007 Paris.

Registration is mandatory via this link.